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|‘Hurricane season with above average number of tropical cyclones’|
|Friday, 31 May 2013 09:14|
WILLEMSTAD — The hurricane season 2013 of the Atlantic Hurricane Area – North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and the Golf of Mexico – officially begins tomorrow. “Several season forecasts show that this season will be rather active, namely 75 percent more active than normal”, the Meteorological Service Curaçao reported.At the beginning of the hurricane season both the public and the government are urged to prepare for a possible threat of a tropical storm or hurricane. The Meteorological Service gets it forecasts from the team of the Colorado State University (CSU) – led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray – that an above average number of tropical cyclones will develop in the hurricane season 2013. “According to these forecasts, eighteen storms will be given a name of which nine will reach hurricane force.” The Meteorological Service explained that the average number of storms with names is estimated at twelve tropical storms of which on average 6.5 will reach hurricane force. “Of the aforementioned eighteen storms, four will develop to a hurricane of category 3 to 5. The average number of storms with hurricane force is 2.”
Also the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States expects an above average season. The expectations of NOAA for this year is that thirteen to twenty storms with a name will develop, of which seven to eleven will develop to a hurricane and three to six of hurricane force.
The climatologic data, collected by CSU, show there were five seasons since 1900 in which the atmospheric and ocean conditions are comparable with this year, namely 1915, 1952, 1966, 1996 and 2004. In 1915 two hurricanes passed through the Caribbean are in August and September. 1952 was a quiet hurricane season in the Caribbean area. In 1996 Hurricane Faith passed just north of the Windward Islands on August 26th. Approximately one month later, on September 27th, the center of Hurricane Inez passed at a distance of just over one-hundred kilometers south of the Windward Islands.
In 1996 Hurricane Bertha passed the Windward Islands on July 8th and later that month (25th) Tropical Storm Cesar passed close to the Leeward Islands. In both cases there was hardly any damage. During the evening of September 8th 2004, the center of Hurricane Ivan passed at a distance of approx. 130 km north the Leeward Islands and this hurricane passed Aruba in the early morning of September 10th, with fierce thunderstorms and subsequently considerable flooding.
Dangers of cyclones
The largest dangers caused by tropical cyclones are: “Fierce winds, exceptionally rough and high sea along the coast, many and sometimes lengthy downpours. As usual, a close watch is kept on all disturbances forming a threat for Curaçao, Bonaire, Saba and St. Eustatius. If necessary, advance warnings or warnings will be given, with the accompanying color code, for these islands. This way the necessary actions, advised by the authorities, can be supported”, the Meteorological Service reported. The names reserved for this hurricane season are: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Garbrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.
As official source for weather forecasts and warnings, the Meteorological Service urges people to prepare for possible threat of a tropical storm or hurricane. The forecasts and warnings will be published on the website www.meteo.an. Also the public can read the latest development on the Facebook-page of the Meteorological Service via www.facebook.com/meteo.curacao.